For better, worse or somewhere in between, Superbowl Fever is here. The WSJ commented this weekend how the first contest seems to be between fans who are posting videos to YouTube. In the last week alone there have been more than 60 take-offs of the Bear's much remembered "Superbowl Shuffle." Interestingly, the original video circa 1986 was removed at the copyright holder's request. YouTube itself is actually holding a competition for users to submit their own takes on Superbowl commercials.
Sundance Takes to the Web
While we're at it, the WSJ also comments how Sundance has gotten websavvy. Of the 71 shorts at the festival, 44 can be watched for free. 17 can be downloaded via iTunes. This year, the organizers also commissioned several short films exclusively for mobile devices.
Online TV Revenues to Raise the Roof
Call this burying the lead on this blog entry, but it is predicted that online TV revenues will jump by ten-fold in the next ten years. That, ladies and gentlemen, will amount to some $6.3 billion. That forecast is announced in a study released today by British research firm Informa Telecoms and Media.
According to Adam Thomas, Media Research Manager at Informa, "these trends are now so pronounced, that the term 'social revolution' no longer seems too much of an exaggeration. With social change occurring on such a large scale, traditional media companies are being forced to change their behaviour and business models to adapt their offering to consumer demand. The challenge for the TV industry is to monetise this massive interest in online content."
The big risk here for traditional media is that they will blow it, in the same way that the recording industry has never recovered from early missteps in dealing with the Internet and piracy. NBC and CBS and to some extent ABC have all found ways to deal with -- and increase viewership and revenues, potentially -- through digital means. There is a real opportunity for traditional media to use these developments for good, at least their own good.
Broadband penetration is a factor that will make all of this possible. Japan and Korea are expected to lead the way with penetration expected to reach 91% and 81%, respectively by 2012. The UK will be next at 79%. The US at 76%.
Monday, January 29, 2007
Superbowl YouTube Style
Wednesday, January 17, 2007
MobileTV: Darling or Deadbeat?
The media (me included) can't seem to figure out whether mobile tv is the next best thing since sliced bread or a disaster (betamax, anyone?) in the making. My opinion (not that you asked, but it's my pulpit) is that it will gain widespread acceptance once everyone figures out how and when to use it.
Here's where the chips fall today. The WSJ runs an extended take under the header "Banner Year: Companies Vie for Ad Dollars on Mobile Web." The article profiles the tremendous, initial success of AdMob. Third Screen also grabs its share of print.
What does Pamela Anderson always have by her side? Her new Lobster 700TV ! Discover the phone now...
The numbers are interesting, though I'm not sure what they mean at this point. In 2006, mobile ad spending reached an estimated $871 worldwide, most of it on text messages, according to the research firm (quoted by WSJ) Informa Telecoms and Media. Meanwhile Internet spending was around $24 billion, according to ZenithOptimedia.
Meanwhile, paidContent.org reports (quoting The Guardian) that Virgin Mobile TV has failed to gain traction in the UK, despite the considerable charms (?) of Pamela Anderson in its $4.9 million ad campaign. The paper reports that considerably fewer than 10,000 subscribers have tuned in thus far. The culprits? Delivery mechanisms, price points, limited service... take your pick. But stay tuned.
Fiction on Demand
The Washington Post reports that it will be publishing fiction for the first time on its website. The paper is serializing a novel written by biz section reporter David Hilzenrath. New serials will be available every Monday and Thursday. In a deal with Lulu, Inc. the book can also be printed on demand. The $18.95 revenue will be split among Lulu, Hilzenrath and the Post. The article comments that providing these ancillary services is another way for newspapers to lure readers in through non-traditional paths.
In related news Mediapost reports that newspaper blogs are catching on....
Now, however, there's some objective support showing that online newspaper readers have taken to the publications' blogs. Data released this morning by media measurement company Nielsen//NetRatings shows that blog pages within the top 10 online newspapers drew around 3.8 million unique visitors last month--more than triple December 2005's 1.2 million.
By contrast, total online readership at the top 10 newspapers during that time has only grown by 9%, from 27.3 million in December 2005 to 29.9 million last month.
These numbers also mean that the proportion of online newspaper readers that also visit the paper's blog has grown from around 4% at the end of 2005 to around 12% last month.
Nielsen//NetRatings also reported that newspapers' blog readers tend to skew male--even more so than online newspapers in general. Men accounted for 66% of visitors to blogs, and 60% of visitors to online newspapers last month.
Tuesday, January 16, 2007
Mobile: Where are We Now?
Today's WSJ reports on social networking by cellphone. It reports on more companies rolling out GPS services that can locate anyone with the service. It profiles Loopt, a service available by wireless operator Boost Mobile which is owned by Sprint Nextel. I could see where it makes some sense, but, uh, can't you just call your friends and ask them where they are?
I wonder if the privacy concerns outweigh the utility. Sure you can make all the promises you want that the info is not retained. I would also be concerned about stalkers using the service. Also, to be somewhat serviceable a greater number of online providers are going to have to offer the service.
In any event, the numbers are interesting. According to Gartner, 63% of mobiles sold in North America in 2007 will have some GPS utility. That's up from 55% last year.
Speaking of mobile, Steve Smith has an interesting column today in Media Post's Mobile Insider, entitled "User Generated Crap." That should give you a pretty good idea of what it's about. His main point is that the tech now far ahead of the content available. The long and short of it is that content that looks OK or at least passable on the the web is often totally unviewable on the really small screen. Also, where you may tolerate a lot of crap on the web where you have a fast connection and pretty good visibility, we're a lot less forgiving on our mobile devices. He draws an analogy to what content providers went through when they started may making material available on the web.
Newsweeklies Cheat Death
At least they're trying, according to this week's Crain's New York Business. The article discusses how Time has been shifting gears with more commentary and features to become less dependent on breaking news. This in an effort to shake up a stagnant (at best) ad market. Newsweek is, however, staying the course and sees an opportunity to break out of Time's shadow. Crain's points out that Newsweek got a much earlier start on the web and that its owner Washington Post Co. is largely controlled by the Graham family, thus easing the pressures exerted on Time by Wall Street.
Non-Traditional Advertising
Yesterday's Times lamented the loss of ad free space. I'm not sure what the big deal is. Granted, I don't need to see Al Roker in the back seat of a cab, but 1) I don't have to look; 2) I can turn down the volume; 3) It's better than looking at whatever is usually on a seatback in a cab. I am not talking about plastering scenic vistas with billboards, but about the creative employment of advertising. It's sometimes a better use of time and space than what's typically sold as entertainment.
Ad Pages
An interesting development . The New York Times Sunday Magazine has for the first time ever beat out all other pubs in ad pages. In 2006, it boasted 3,965 ad pages, a 5% increase over the previous year.
Friday, January 12, 2007
Mobile TV: Who Knew?
Just a couple of shorts today to get your weekend off to a rip roaring start. TelecomWeb reports that mobile TV is starting to catch on. Things are far from standardized in terms of mobile devices, capabilities and offerings, but the quality is much better. US and UK providers are much more likely to offer mainstream channels. Asian operators, Maxis and Mobile One, are providing content geared more specifically to local interests.
A new study by Bivings reports that newspaper websites (54%) are much more likely to offer mobile content than blogs (24%). Based on earlier studies that show newspapers by and large are lagging far behind other forms of media in web availability, this would indicate that those that are on the web are going for it. But what the study also indicated that there is no uniform way to access the mobile information available. Some requires going through third party services, others charge a fee.
At this point, the overall conclusion that mobile still has a way to go. We'll follow what develops over the year, and I'd like to hear any and all observations.
Wednesday, January 10, 2007
Media Convergence 2.0
OK. We were all wrong the first time. Things did not converge in the mid-90s. Your phone did not become your TV, your computer did not walk your dog, etc. But technology finally appears to be catching up with big ideas, and it looks like it may actually happen this time. iPhone and Apple TV are two, big examples. I suspect, though, that the phone will be a tougher sell than was the iPod. The early adopters will do it. That's a gimme. I think the problem will be widespread adoption among folks who already have phones AND already have mobile contracts. All of sudden you could be talking about $750 to buy a new phone.
Another example of convergence a-coming is today's announcement that Meredith, the old school publisher of titles like Better Homes and Gardens and Family Circle, has acquired Genex and New Media Strategies. The former a digital ad agency; the latter a word of mouth agency. This would seem to be a sign of a traditional content company diversifying (i.e. spreading the brand) into marketing services. Time will tell if a content company getting into the ad game is the wisest way to go.
The WSJ take on it....
“The acquisitions follow Meredith’s purchase of LA-based interactive-marketing agency O’Grady Meyers ... The latest deals are the strongest signal to date that Meredith—confronting slowing growth in its core publishing and television businesses—is broadening its focus to include marketing services, one of the fastest-growing parts of the advertising industry. Even after these purchases, the Des Moines, Iowa, company is still on the prowl for other acquisitions to round out its marketing-services offerings, says Stephen Lacy, Meredith’s CEO.
Travelzoo.com
I had an opportunity to speak with my friend Aaron Brown last night. No, not the deposed CNN anchor, a former producer. For the last couple of years, he has been with an outfit called travelzoo.com. The company provides info on travel deals and links to providers of travel services. Aaron has been at the forefront of getting the company to make a commitment to new media initiatives. They now host a videocast (while you're watching the video you can actually link to the deals) on their site, and there's more in the works. He believes that travel is an area where there are numerous multi-platform opportunities that have not even begun to be tapped.
But Will You Pay for It?
I didn't realize that the wsj.com has more subscribers than all but three print newspapers in the country -- The New York Times, USA Today and the print version of the Wall Street Journal. WSJ publisher had this to say about it in Romanesko....
"I am very concerned that many other publishers with high-quality news brands have devalued their brands by trying to charge in one medium (print) while giving away access to brands and content in another medium (online)," he says. "But I understand that it's very hard to change strategies."
Interesting thought, but numerous publications, including the NYT, have found it exceedingly difficult to find an online model that readers will pay for.
Monday, January 8, 2007
When Worlds Collide
Merrill Lynch reports that VOD and DVD rentals are headed for a death match. As reported earlier today in paidcontent.org Merrill Lynch analyst Jessica Reif Cohen says that VOD is coming into its own, offering better quality films and gaining a foothold in consumer homes with the wider adoption of digital. VOD releases are now timed closer to theatrical release windows, leaving less time alone for DVDs on rental shelves. The two big winners: Comcast, the country's leading provider of VOD, epxected to have 40% of VOD subscribers by 2011 and to capture 40-50% of total VOD revenue (projected to be $2.8 billion) at that time; and, the studios who have not fared well by rentals over the last few years. Rental revenues will rise 10% in the next few years, due to VOD.
Funky Media
Crain's New York Business reports that poor local radio and television revenue figures for 2006 have left broadcasters "glad that 2006 is over."
Unfortunately, 2007 isn't looking much better. Television insiders are predicting a low single-digit drop in ad billings this year as the Internet continues to steal advertisers.
Stay tuned....
Good News, Bad News
The good news, according to Forrester Research is that mobile consumers are beginning to adopt other services, creating audiences for mobile marketing. The bad news is that 79% of consumers find the idea of mobile ads annoying.
As reported in the Boston Globe....
To avoid the perception of mobile spam, marketers must work with the unique elements of the mobile channel itself and the relevance of their message," Forrester Research principal analyst Christine Spivey Overby said in a statement. "In contrast to other channels, mobile is highly integrated into people's daily activities and physical environment. This means marketers can embrace the real-world connections with relevant location-based services and campaigns that tie mobile and on-premise advertising."
One Nation Under a Groove
At the risk of losing whatever credibility I may have, I suggest you check out Bootsy Collins. Bootsy helped to redefine the James Brown sound ... Do you promise to funk, the whole funk?
Tuesday, December 12, 2006
The Next Big Thing
I continue to believe that mobile technologies will be the next big thing to hit the U.S. It might not even happen next year, but it will happen. The mobile wars continue in Asia, which is literally light years ahead of where we are in the US of A.
In a recent study the GSM, the global trade association for mobile operators, announced that multi-media messaging (MMS), the older, wiser brother to SMS has already become a popular service overseas and is poised to pop. Mobile email may have even greater potential, according to the poll.
“This comprehensive survey shows that there is considerable appetite for rich messaging services that broaden the range of communications options open to mobile phone users,” said Bill Gajda, Chief Marketing Officer of the GSMA. “After a slow start, MMS has gained a loyal following, while mobile email is clearly emerging as a must-have service for many people.”
Not surprising mobile email was the most popular usage in the U.S. In Europe and Asia, it was text messaging, followed by mobile email and MMS. The preference chart is interesting:
| Service | Ranking |
| Text messaging (SMS) | 1 |
2 | |
| MMS | 3 |
| Alerts via SMS/MMS | 4 |
| Instant messaging | 5 |
| Web browsing and searching | 6 |
| Location-based services | 7 |
| Mobile radio | 8 |
| Financial transactions | 9 |
| Downloading content | 10 |
| Mobile TV | 11 |
| Video calling | 12 |
| Video sharing | 13 |
| Gambling | 14 |
The Year Behind, The Year Ahead
It's getting to be that time of year when the Top 10 lists are compiled. Of course, my top trend of the year was the momentum picked up by multi-platform technology and content, but that comprises a great deal. Read/Write Web has compiled a great list of trends and developments, vintage 2006. Among other highlights, it notes 2006 as the Year of the Social Network. Also, the year that still is was the year that many tech applications were made consumer friendly (e.g. Skype, IM) or at least adopted in larger numbers by consumers. It has also been the year when VC money returned to the fore, though in amounts smaller than the Bubble years. Ironically, there are fewer startups needing, wanting or willing to take large cash infusions. It has also been a hot year for video on the web.
Interesting.... the site also points out that world Internet penetration is 16%, and that 3/4 of web traffic to the larger sites is international.
