Show Me The Bubbles

Confirmation continues that we are in the midst of a bubble, big time. Genealogy site geni.com was valued by investors today at $100 mm today. Charles River Ventures paid $10 mm for a 10% stake in the social networking company, described this way in paidcontent.org....

Geni difference from other social nets rests on its specific focus on people interested in genealogical research and cataloguing. Instead of identifying Geni as a social networking site, Sacks calls it “family networking” and the hope is that people interested in mapping out their personal history will recruit other family members to the site.

Fred Wilson keeps things on the ground by pointing out that the actual cash paid out by Charles River was only $10mm -- by no means chump change, but not $100mm. He also points out that there is cash to be made in a bubble. You just need to be extremely careful and selective.

In a sign that the bubble is not ending life as we know it, the much discussed and at one time much touted Disney on-demand venture Moviebeam was sold to Movie Gallery for about $10mm. That's after it was re-capped last year for $48.5mm and much after Disney poured an estimated $70mm into the project. It was the price that probably did them in. Disney was charging almost $300 for the hardware alone. In the evolving on-demand world hardware is a losing proposition. Everything you need will sooner or later be delivered on-line.

Newspapers Enter Video Age

It was disclosed today on Beet.tv that MSN and AP have worked out an arrangement with thousands of client newspapers and other news organizations around the country by which they will make available thousands of hours of client and user generated content. It's estimated that some 3,500 of AP associated news organizations could participate, ultimately. The day may be a bit further off for newspapers and others who are not yet up to speed with video. But the opportunity is there.

Video Saved the Radio Star

You may or may not recall the first video shown on MTV way back in the Golden Age of TV, circa 1981 (Actually any Age of TV you just missed seems to become the Golden Age. I was actually quite alive and in college in 1981, but I digress). It was, "Video Killed the Radio Star" by the Buggles.

Now it seems that video may actually be saving the radio star. That is the tack taken by Richard Siklos in today's NYT. Video is now a growing complement to many of the popular radio shows out there. According to comScore Media Metrix, Clear Channel radio sites ranked sixth in December among music Websites. That's behind MTV, AOL, Yahoo, MySpace and Artistdirect.

The article describes how radio stations have added video in an effort to offset dwindling audiences. The efforts seem to be working. I have a slightly different take on it.... I believe that one reason why video is working in tandem with radio is that it offers audiences yet another source of original, local media. Local media is hot right now, whether its offered as Websites, magazines, television. There are numerous opportunities to find out what's happening around the world or across the country, but far fewer reliable sources to discover what's happening around the corner. I believe that's what these video versions of local radio are now offering to their audiences, and people can't get enough of it.

Age of the Blog
Today's WSJ runs an interview with Technorati Chair and CMO Peter Hirshberg. Hirshberg is betting the farm on the future of blogs (well, he does after all, know where his bread is buttered) but it's a point of view with which I agree. He stresses the importance of listening to and engaging with customers and consumers and urges companies to hire a person whose job it is not only to blog but to engage with bloggers and to monitor what's being said. While he is careful to say you shouldn't listen to everything everyone says, you can get a general vibe from monitoring the traffic. Self promotion warning: This is something that I've been advocating for a while now, but it has been falling on mostly deaf ears.

Animal House: Multi-Platforming It
I was at a Dartmouth College event last night taping a book reading by Chris Miller. Miller who co-wrote the screenplay of Animal House has just published "a mostly lucid memoir" entitled "The Real Animal House." From the reading, I can tell you it's not something for Mom's birthday. But what's interesting is that Animal House was adapted from the "Tales from the Adelphian Lodge" that Miller wrote for National Lampoon in 1975. Now, many years later, he's gone back to write the book that was what the articles were supposed to precede. Well, a small cultural icon, starring the artistry of a young man named John Belushi intervened. Thirty years later, here we are.

The New TV

I had a great conversation today with Adam Elend and Jeff Marks, the producers of Wallstrip. Wallstrip is an irreverent video series, looking at stocks topping the charts on Wall Street. Elend and Marks are TV pros and the daily videos are slick without being glossy. You know what I mean, they still have that sort of underground edge. Now that they've started and have caught on to the tune of 10,000 viewers per segment, they are being courted by potential partners and advertisers. I should also mention that Howard Lindzon is the third, non-production member of the Wallstrip triumverate. Howard is, however, featured on today's segment.

Wall Street is definitely the right way to go. After porn, gambling, and, maybe, technology, personal finance attracts a huge audience of the right demo of people with money and some tech savvy. Wallstrip definitely does it right by bringing production values to a web video world that has long been dominated (OK, it hasn't been around for too long) by talking heads and dark and gloomy shooting.

Adam and I had a long conversation about how web video is likely to be monetized in the future. We agreed that the winning formula is not to create a tent pole site, but to make your video available to everyone who wants to see it by whatever means possible. They post on YouTube, blip.tv, iTunes, etc. You can also subscribe or catch it on their own site. I have attempted to do this in media campaigns I've been running. Post it everywhere, and do not assume people will find it and come running to you.

We also discussed the state of web video advertising. Adam feels that pre and post rolls will be of limited utility, and that the winning formula will be to embed and integrate advertising into online content and also to create affiliations with consumer and service brands. This is another example of history repeating itself. Soap operas, variety shows (Hello, Uncle Miltie) and even the news were once presented by and named after single sponsors.

When Worlds Collide

Merrill Lynch reports that VOD and DVD rentals are headed for a death match. As reported earlier today in paidcontent.org Merrill Lynch analyst Jessica Reif Cohen says that VOD is coming into its own, offering better quality films and gaining a foothold in consumer homes with the wider adoption of digital. VOD releases are now timed closer to theatrical release windows, leaving less time alone for DVDs on rental shelves. The two big winners: Comcast, the country's leading provider of VOD, epxected to have 40% of VOD subscribers by 2011 and to capture 40-50% of total VOD revenue (projected to be $2.8 billion) at that time; and, the studios who have not fared well by rentals over the last few years. Rental revenues will rise 10% in the next few years, due to VOD.

Funky Media

Crain's New York Business reports that poor local radio and television revenue figures for 2006 have left broadcasters "glad that 2006 is over."

Unfortunately, 2007 isn't looking much better. Television insiders are predicting a low single-digit drop in ad billings this year as the Internet continues to steal advertisers.

Stay tuned....

Good News, Bad News

The good news, according to Forrester Research is that mobile consumers are beginning to adopt other services, creating audiences for mobile marketing. The bad news is that 79% of consumers find the idea of mobile ads annoying.

As reported in the Boston Globe....

To avoid the perception of mobile spam, marketers must work with the unique elements of the mobile channel itself and the relevance of their message," Forrester Research principal analyst Christine Spivey Overby said in a statement. "In contrast to other channels, mobile is highly integrated into people's daily activities and physical environment. This means marketers can embrace the real-world connections with relevant location-based services and campaigns that tie mobile and on-premise advertising."

One Nation Under a Groove

At the risk of losing whatever credibility I may have, I suggest you check out Bootsy Collins. Bootsy helped to redefine the James Brown sound ... Do you promise to funk, the whole funk?

We're Baaaack.....

I hope all of you had a great holiday. We're back. We're rested, sort of (the whole family caught a nasty virus in Jamaica). But we are ready to go ahead to a great 2007!

A very interesting article in this week's issue of the Madison+Vine newsletter, an interview with Magna Global's new head honcho Bill Hilary. Magna, as you may recall, is the leading agency in the world of branded entertainment. Anyway, I'm happy to include a quote from the interview, primarily because Hilary agrees with me.

You've talked about your interest in digital and multiplatform entertainment. Can you give some examples of how this could work for your clients and what some of your priorities are in that area? "Multiplatform entertainment is already happening in a big way and it is going to be huge. It's like an octopus. The body is the brand concept-content and the tentacles are the many varied ways of getting the message across to the consumer. The days of creating content solely for linear broadcast are over. Every project we are developing is designed to exist on many platforms. It opens so many more opportunities and ways to reach a more diverse range of consumer."

Saddam TV
The video of Saddam's execution, as captured by mobile phone camera, has by now been widely distributed on the Internet. One of the things that's extremely interesting about this is that the fact that you can hear the taunts and jeers of the crowd, something that was missing on the Iraqi government's official video. This says a tremendous amount about the power of citizen journalism or whatever you want to call it. The fact is that it's a tidal wave that is just getting bigger and bigger. The challenge for established media outlets is how they will use and edit it.

The cameras are getting better, both the lenses and the memories. It's getting easier to establish a link from mobile device to websites. NPD, a market research firm, reports that 2/3 of phones shipped in November, 2006 were video equipped as compared with just 49% percent the year before.

There's a very interesting article about it today's WSJ. Fox News and CNN. Fox is actually issuing Palm Treos to its correspondents, so they can start broadcasting from the moment they hit the ground. The WSJ article reports that CNN correspondent Nic Robertson used a two mega-pixel Nokia N90 camera phone to show his vehicle being attacked in Darfur.

Yours, Mine and Ours

In case you missed the drumroll and all of the excitement, YOU have been named Time's Person of the Year. Well, not YOU as in you, but really all of us. Time's editors decided that it has been the year of people powered media, and that all of us should give ourselves a collective pat on the back. Well, well done. Congratulations. If you ask me, it's a cop out, too clever by half.

Digg Video

In a major reconfiguration, Digg will be reformatted to accommodate serious video sharing. Viewers will be able to watch videos from YouTube, Google and Metacafe without leaving the Digg site.

FCC to Morse Code: See Ya'

In a late breaking development the FCC has determined that competency in morse code will no longer be a require to obtain an amateur radio technicians license. Boys, the pressure is off.

Apologies

As the year comes to an end, things have been getting a little hectic on the personal and professional fronts. The last entry for this year will be Thursday's. Then after a bit of R&R, we will come out swinging with original material, new info about companies, etc. Promise, New Year's resolution and all. Please pass the word about your media home away from home.