Confirmation continues that we are in the midst of a bubble, big time. Genealogy site geni.com was valued by investors today at $100 mm today. Charles River Ventures paid $10 mm for a 10% stake in the social networking company, described this way in paidcontent.org....
Geni difference from other social nets rests on its specific focus on people interested in genealogical research and cataloguing. Instead of identifying Geni as a social networking site, Sacks calls it “family networking” and the hope is that people interested in mapping out their personal history will recruit other family members to the site.
Fred Wilson keeps things on the ground by pointing out that the actual cash paid out by Charles River was only $10mm -- by no means chump change, but not $100mm. He also points out that there is cash to be made in a bubble. You just need to be extremely careful and selective.
In a sign that the bubble is not ending life as we know it, the much discussed and at one time much touted Disney on-demand venture Moviebeam was sold to Movie Gallery for about $10mm. That's after it was re-capped last year for $48.5mm and much after Disney poured an estimated $70mm into the project. It was the price that probably did them in. Disney was charging almost $300 for the hardware alone. In the evolving on-demand world hardware is a losing proposition. Everything you need will sooner or later be delivered on-line.
Newspapers Enter Video Age
It was disclosed today on Beet.tv that MSN and AP have worked out an arrangement with thousands of client newspapers and other news organizations around the country by which they will make available thousands of hours of client and user generated content. It's estimated that some 3,500 of AP associated news organizations could participate, ultimately. The day may be a bit further off for newspapers and others who are not yet up to speed with video. But the opportunity is there.
Wednesday, March 7, 2007
Show Me The Bubbles
Monday, March 5, 2007
Who Pays For New Media? The Cavemen
The question of just who will finance the media revolution seems to have been answered... the Geico cavemen. You've seen the commercials, but you probably didn't see, until today, that is, is that ABC has decided to commission a pilot around the characters in the Geico commercials. Says Geico's vp of marketing Ted Ward, "We sell car insurance; we don't make TV shows. We are excited to have an opportunity to do brand extension."
The ad campaign has been successfully extended across platforms. A Caveman showed up at the Oscars, even attending an after party. He also played a round of golf with Phil Simms on the Superbowl pregame show.
But that's not really odd. It's the inverted relationship between programming and advertising that truly makes this seem like a trip to the bizarro world. If I've got this right.... It's a TV show based on a thirty second spot. Granted, ABC has had problems creating a hit TV sitcom in recent years, but taking your lead from a commercial sponsor does not seem like a winning proposition. If history is any guide, it won't work too well, according to the WSJ. In the 1980's the California Raisins had a TV special and a short lived cartoon series and a TV special. The same was true for a talking baby, "Baby Bob," found in an Internet commercial.
And just a sign that we live in a truly bizarre world.... The Burger King will be the subject of a feature film.
Kudos to USA TODAY
USA TODAY went live on Saturday with a revamped website, featuring tremendous social networking features....
"While we've refined the design, we've also expanded the journalistic mission," wrote editors Ken Paulson, Kinsey Wilson and John Hillkirk in an editor's note Saturday. "Our ambition is to help readers quickly and easily make sense of the world around them by giving them a wider view of the news of the day and connecting them with other readers who can contribute to their understanding of events."
It's a great example of a newspaper really getting and extending its branding.
Ford Foundation Conference
I am producing a roundtable on "The Future of Media (and who will pay for it)" under the auspices of the Ford Foundation and UCAL Berkeley in NY on March 23. It will be a small gathering of people from the worlds of media, finance and academe. I will start blogging about it and presenting some relevant materials on this site.
Initially, I'd like to call your attention to the documentary produced by the Ted Koppel Group that will air on Discovery on Sunday. It's called Our Children's Children's War. The Executive Producer is Tom Bettag, who will be present at the Roundtable.
One of the things that is extremely interesting about the Koppel unit is the transition that they (producers and Ted) have made from network television to cable. I would argue that Koppel has realized that he was no longer dependent on ABC for the perpetuation of his brand. Rather, through Discovery as well as through op-eds in the New York Times and regular contributions to NPR, Ted has become a true media brand. I think that he (and we) are the better for it.
Thursday, February 1, 2007
The Museum Closes
British theaters have pulled the plug on "Night At The Museum," in response to Fox's plans to release the DVD just 13 weeks after theatrical release. The accepted theatrical window has been four months. It's the second showdown in two weeks. Last week German theater owners pulled all Fox pictures in response to the studio's plan to move up the DVD release date of Eragon. Fox blinked on that one. It seems that the war over theatrical windows (a battle between platforms) has just begun. In the US directors like Steven Soderbergh have been playing with the concept of simultaneous theatrical and home releases. The theatrical window is bound to close, but the timing is still up in the air.
Web: TV's Minor Leagues?
As reported on Mashable today, the indomitable LisaNova will be making the move to the big time (well, semi-big time) having signed a deal to join the cast of MADtv. LisaNova, aka Lisa Donovan, moved to LA and auditioned unsuccessfully for MADtv the first time around, the traditional way. She made it once her YouTube show took off into the stratosphere. Fred Wilson reports that her YouTube shows sometimes generate more than 1mm viewers, always more than 100,000.
The real question here is whether the web is a farm club for TV or a end in and of itself. I would argue that, at least for now, it's a training ground. MADtv is now a farm club for bigger and better TV shows and films in the same way that the Groundlings as been a feeder for SNL. What's quite cool is the opportunity that forums like YouTube allow for training and truly open auditions.
More Bad News In Timesville
Yesterday the Times reported a $648 million quarterly loss. As reported by the AP...
The New York Times Co. posted a $648 million loss in its latest quarter as it absorbed an $814.4 million charge to write down the value of its struggling New England properties, The Boston Globe and the Worcester Telegram & Gazette.
Interesting, some of the loss is attributed to the economic clime, but a part of it is reported to have been caused by the consolidation of major retail chains, like Macy's and Filene's, the bread and butter of newspaper advertising.
Wednesday, January 24, 2007
Popular Wisdom: Wrong Again
The commentators and critics were wrong about vcr's in late '70s. The popular wisdom then, at least in Hollywood, was that videotapes would put the studios out of business. Doom and gloom abounded. That proved wrong. Videos delivered a much needed boost in the arm to the "industry."
Until recently, the popular wisdom has been that the Internet would put the television nets out of business. OK, it's an exaggeration, but cut me some slack, I'm working on a larger point. That point is that Nielsen is now reporting that the number of people watching television shows is actually up.
The conclusion is rather dramatic according to the Nielsen press release...
Video on PCs and iPods actually is expanding the audience of traditional TV programs, supported by the fact that total TV usage was at a record high in U.S. households at 8 hours, 14 minutes a day during the 2005-2006 TV season according to Nielsen Media Research data.
The study also reports that television advertisers and programmers are finding new and lucrative markets in broadband television. Nielsen also reports on advertising models, saying that 15-30 second pre-rolls work best and should demand a higher CPM than traditional television advertising due to the level of interactivity. There is debate, however, regarding whether pre-rolls will emerge as the favored ad model in broadband tv. Some critics argue for the potential of post-rolls. Others say that subscription models will rule.
Newspapers Pull Back
The Boston Globe has announced that it will be closing its three remaining overseas bureaus, Jerusalem, Berlin and Bogota. The WSJ comments that this reflects a "painful" issue for major metropolitan dailies. In the face of mounting losses and budget cuts, do they concentrate heavily on local reporting?
Jill Carroll, the Christian Science Monitor stringer in Iraq and one-time kidnapping victim, who was a fellow at Harvard's Shorenstein Center notes that the number of U.S. newspaper correspondents stationed abroad had dropped 12% between 2000 and 2006, dropping to 249 from 282.
Last week, Jack Welch on CNBC said, "I'm not sure local papers need to cover Iraq, need to cover global events." I'm not going to get into whether Jack Welch is the commentator most qualified to talk about the state of journalism (although he is trying to buy the Globe), but what he said makes a lot of sense. There is so much timely coverage of major issues across the board 24/7 that local newspaper dollars are perhaps best spent on local coverage and enterprise or investigative reporting. Those are things that readers aren't going to get elsewhere.
Go ElfYourself.com
Advertising Age's Madison + Vine reports that OfficeMax totally rocked the house in its aggressive Holiday campaign. On one of the 20 websites they launched, ElfYourself.com, where people pasted their faces on a singing and dancing pixie, 11 million people turned themselves into elves. That's not me btw.
The site was splashed across "Good Morning America," CNN, ESPN and national print pubs, and more than 100 user-generated videos were posted on YouTube. Elf Yourself generated 79,000 MySpace hits and 2 million Google queries, all in about five weeks. Consumers spent 300 million minutes on all 20 sites, which pulled in $2.5 million in media exposure.
Multi-platform rules!
Wednesday, January 17, 2007
MobileTV: Darling or Deadbeat?
The media (me included) can't seem to figure out whether mobile tv is the next best thing since sliced bread or a disaster (betamax, anyone?) in the making. My opinion (not that you asked, but it's my pulpit) is that it will gain widespread acceptance once everyone figures out how and when to use it.
Here's where the chips fall today. The WSJ runs an extended take under the header "Banner Year: Companies Vie for Ad Dollars on Mobile Web." The article profiles the tremendous, initial success of AdMob. Third Screen also grabs its share of print.
What does Pamela Anderson always have by her side? Her new Lobster 700TV ! Discover the phone now...
The numbers are interesting, though I'm not sure what they mean at this point. In 2006, mobile ad spending reached an estimated $871 worldwide, most of it on text messages, according to the research firm (quoted by WSJ) Informa Telecoms and Media. Meanwhile Internet spending was around $24 billion, according to ZenithOptimedia.
Meanwhile, paidContent.org reports (quoting The Guardian) that Virgin Mobile TV has failed to gain traction in the UK, despite the considerable charms (?) of Pamela Anderson in its $4.9 million ad campaign. The paper reports that considerably fewer than 10,000 subscribers have tuned in thus far. The culprits? Delivery mechanisms, price points, limited service... take your pick. But stay tuned.
Fiction on Demand
The Washington Post reports that it will be publishing fiction for the first time on its website. The paper is serializing a novel written by biz section reporter David Hilzenrath. New serials will be available every Monday and Thursday. In a deal with Lulu, Inc. the book can also be printed on demand. The $18.95 revenue will be split among Lulu, Hilzenrath and the Post. The article comments that providing these ancillary services is another way for newspapers to lure readers in through non-traditional paths.
In related news Mediapost reports that newspaper blogs are catching on....
Now, however, there's some objective support showing that online newspaper readers have taken to the publications' blogs. Data released this morning by media measurement company Nielsen//NetRatings shows that blog pages within the top 10 online newspapers drew around 3.8 million unique visitors last month--more than triple December 2005's 1.2 million.
By contrast, total online readership at the top 10 newspapers during that time has only grown by 9%, from 27.3 million in December 2005 to 29.9 million last month.
These numbers also mean that the proportion of online newspaper readers that also visit the paper's blog has grown from around 4% at the end of 2005 to around 12% last month.
Nielsen//NetRatings also reported that newspapers' blog readers tend to skew male--even more so than online newspapers in general. Men accounted for 66% of visitors to blogs, and 60% of visitors to online newspapers last month.
Friday, January 12, 2007
Mobile TV: Who Knew?
Just a couple of shorts today to get your weekend off to a rip roaring start. TelecomWeb reports that mobile TV is starting to catch on. Things are far from standardized in terms of mobile devices, capabilities and offerings, but the quality is much better. US and UK providers are much more likely to offer mainstream channels. Asian operators, Maxis and Mobile One, are providing content geared more specifically to local interests.
A new study by Bivings reports that newspaper websites (54%) are much more likely to offer mobile content than blogs (24%). Based on earlier studies that show newspapers by and large are lagging far behind other forms of media in web availability, this would indicate that those that are on the web are going for it. But what the study also indicated that there is no uniform way to access the mobile information available. Some requires going through third party services, others charge a fee.
At this point, the overall conclusion that mobile still has a way to go. We'll follow what develops over the year, and I'd like to hear any and all observations.
Thursday, January 11, 2007
Eye Care
For those who don't know, here is what TV host Stephen Colbert has done: 1) Understanding his audience and the You Tube creative community, Colbert filmed an action sequence behind a green screen, and then issued a challenge to his viewers to edit in a background. I don't know how many entries there were in this challenge, but it was huge. Colbert understood his audience and engaged with them on their terms. Go check it out in You Tube or ColbertNation.com. 2) Colbert has created an alternate set of "facts," repurposing the "Wiki" idea. Just Google it. It's both hysterical and extremely smart. 3) Some central European country was having an Internet vote to determine whom to name a bridge after. After Colbert asked his viewers to vote for him, he got the largest number--millions--of entries. He lost the rights to the bridge name on a technicality, but he was very effective at using his television show to drive online behavior. In a stunning announcement, E.W. Scripps has announced that it may spin of its newspaper operations -- it currently owns newspapers in 18 markets -- in an effort to unlock what it sees as the true value in the company's stock. Joseph NeCastro, Scripps EVP of finance and administration, said that, "Newspapers are much more troubled.... It's hard to call the bottom." Newspapers now account for just 29% of Scripps revenues. Growth in recent years has come from cable properties like HGTV and the Food Network.
"There's no such thing as old or new media anymore; we're just media.... Whether 'programming' means 'CSI' or 'C++,' we're all playing on the same big digital field."
Among the initiatives he's announcing is bringing Star Trek to Second Life, where there will be some sort of Entreprise mock-up. OK. Hoping to catch the viral buzz that amateur videos are finding through YouTube, CBS has also teamed up with Sling Box to create a "Clip and Sling" product that will enable viewers to send network clips far and wide.
Moonves also introduced YouTube's Chad Hurley. They announced a joint contest in which viewers will be invited to make a 15 second video on any subject. They winning entry will be shown during the Superbowl.
Some of this will work, some won't. But CBS is certainly in there pitching.
Colbert Reporting
Comedy Central's Steve Colbert gets it. He is quickly turning his phenomenal television show into a media brand. In a column in Mediapost's TV Board, Manning Field gives a rundown...
Wednesday, January 10, 2007
Media Convergence 2.0
OK. We were all wrong the first time. Things did not converge in the mid-90s. Your phone did not become your TV, your computer did not walk your dog, etc. But technology finally appears to be catching up with big ideas, and it looks like it may actually happen this time. iPhone and Apple TV are two, big examples. I suspect, though, that the phone will be a tougher sell than was the iPod. The early adopters will do it. That's a gimme. I think the problem will be widespread adoption among folks who already have phones AND already have mobile contracts. All of sudden you could be talking about $750 to buy a new phone.
Another example of convergence a-coming is today's announcement that Meredith, the old school publisher of titles like Better Homes and Gardens and Family Circle, has acquired Genex and New Media Strategies. The former a digital ad agency; the latter a word of mouth agency. This would seem to be a sign of a traditional content company diversifying (i.e. spreading the brand) into marketing services. Time will tell if a content company getting into the ad game is the wisest way to go.
The WSJ take on it....
“The acquisitions follow Meredith’s purchase of LA-based interactive-marketing agency O’Grady Meyers ... The latest deals are the strongest signal to date that Meredith—confronting slowing growth in its core publishing and television businesses—is broadening its focus to include marketing services, one of the fastest-growing parts of the advertising industry. Even after these purchases, the Des Moines, Iowa, company is still on the prowl for other acquisitions to round out its marketing-services offerings, says Stephen Lacy, Meredith’s CEO.
Travelzoo.com
I had an opportunity to speak with my friend Aaron Brown last night. No, not the deposed CNN anchor, a former producer. For the last couple of years, he has been with an outfit called travelzoo.com. The company provides info on travel deals and links to providers of travel services. Aaron has been at the forefront of getting the company to make a commitment to new media initiatives. They now host a videocast (while you're watching the video you can actually link to the deals) on their site, and there's more in the works. He believes that travel is an area where there are numerous multi-platform opportunities that have not even begun to be tapped.
But Will You Pay for It?
I didn't realize that the wsj.com has more subscribers than all but three print newspapers in the country -- The New York Times, USA Today and the print version of the Wall Street Journal. WSJ publisher had this to say about it in Romanesko....
"I am very concerned that many other publishers with high-quality news brands have devalued their brands by trying to charge in one medium (print) while giving away access to brands and content in another medium (online)," he says. "But I understand that it's very hard to change strategies."
Interesting thought, but numerous publications, including the NYT, have found it exceedingly difficult to find an online model that readers will pay for.
Thursday, December 14, 2006
The Future is a Japanese Schoolgirl
Basically, just a few quick jottings tonight.... Per the WSJ, the average high school girl in Japan sends about 200 SMS messages a day. The source for that is quoted as Hiromitsu Sakuma, group director of 141 World Wide, a divison of Ogilvy that helps firms brand themselves in Japan.
160characters.org meanwhile cites a Gartner study saying that worldwide SMS volume will double by 2008. The research shows that an estimated 936 billion SMS messages were sent worldwide in 2005. Gartner predicts this will reach 2.3 trillion by 2010. The highest growth will be in North America, where high school girls are now sending considerably fewer than 200 messages a day.
Newspapers Turn to Local Video
This month's issue of OMMA reports on the trend of local newspapers (very local, in some cases) adopting video strategies. This multi-platform initiative is often done on a shoestring and shows some great initiative. Florida's Naples Daily News is cited as slick, well produced and ahead of the curve.
Wednesday, December 13, 2006
Newspapers, The Next Frontier?
Mark Cuban has some thoughts about the future of the newspaper in this month's issue of Esquire, where he is identified as one of the Best and Brightest of 2006. He says, "So newspapers aren't dying; they're just undergoing an indentity crisis. They don't know who they want to be." He follows up, that the unique function of newspapers is to provide in-depth reporting and context. Breaking news can come from other places. Finally, he believes it's still a good business. "Newspapers aren't dying. Newspapers are making tons of money; they just aren't keeping their shareholders happy, they aren't meeting their expectations on Wall Street."
No Such Thing as Free Lunch Department
Skype announced today that they will begin charging a $30 annual fee for unlimited phone service. And a Merry Christmas to you too.
We're sure you've seen it, and read it, but in the words of The New York Times' Virginia Heffernan, Amanda Congdon, "a droll, blond Rosalind Russell for the digital generation — has at last landed at ABCNews.com."
Monday, December 11, 2006
Pop Up Mania
It is a story that has been floating around for a while, but today the New York Times reported that Entrepreneur.com and several other publishing sites have been inflating their circ numbers (I'm shocked, shocked I tell you). The way it worked is that content (actual content, not ads) was popping up all over the place. The result was that the site's traffic more than tripled from about 2 million to 7.6 million according to the Times. That translates into some serious cash. Others busted in Pop Upgate include Concierge.com (the site belonging to Conde Nast Traveler), ForbesAutos.com and Heavy.com. Heavy.com says that the content was placed by third parties, without its knowledge.
NYT New Media Saga Continues
Speaking of the Times, John Cook of the Seattle Post Intelligencer reported that NYT.com is linking to Facebook, Digg and Newsvine. Material on the Times' blogs and NYT Select will not be available for sharing. Thus, one wonders if the NYT is in the midst of making another online misstep, inviting the type of controversy that accompanied the introduction of the paper's select service.
Wednesday, December 6, 2006
Newspapers, Stop Crying
For several years there has been much wailing from within the ranks of the newspaper industry. No one reads them, Craigs List has taken their ads away, consolidation within the retail ranks has contracted the ad market, etc. Well, guess what, no one promised an eternal annuity and newspapers gotta learn to adapt.
It's called the market economy, and by the way, newspapers are still making money. True the long term outlook isn't great for print, but they're still making money. What newspapers have are valuable brands, and they've got to learn how to diversify into other forms of media. The ones that do will not only survive but will thrive. A recent Bivings report on the use of the Internet by newspapers shows that there's a long way to go.
Those who do adapt are likely to see a good year next year according to Stuart Elliott's column in yesterday's Times. He reports that the Newspapaper Association of America predicts a rate of growth of 1.2 percent next year. The 2007 forecast for online is a bouncing baby 22 percent. Newspapers, delay online initiatives at your own peril.
